The tin market exhibits a pattern of "marginal improvement in supply and persistently weak demand." [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of November 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2512) opened at 284,000 yuan/mt, touched a high of 284,760 yuan/mt and a low of 282,950 yuan/mt during the session, and closed the morning session at 282,900 yuan/mt, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. Domestic spot tin prices were concentrated in the range of 281,000-283,000 yuan/mt, with some traders offering small discounts due to inventory pressure, and overall transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, LME tin futures were quoted at $35,865/mt, and the price spread between domestic and overseas markets continued to narrow, reflecting enhanced global supply chain linkage.

From a supply and demand perspective, the tin market currently exhibits a pattern of "marginal improvement in supply and persistently weak demand." Supply side, since Myanmar's Wa State initiated the first batch of mine production resumptions in July, imports have gradually rebounded in Q4, with port arrivals of Myanmar tin ore increasing 15% MoM since October, easing the tight raw material supply. However, Indonesia's stringent regulatory policies persist; after closing over a thousand illegal mining sites in September, a sharp decline in smuggling has led to reduced efficiency in the export process.

Macro perspective, uncertainty in US Fed monetary policy has suppressed market risk appetite, while concerns over a US government shutdown and the absence of inflation data have made investors more cautious. The US dollar index fluctuated and adjusted, exerting some pressure on LME tin prices denominated in US dollars. Additionally, expectations for domestic growth-stabilization policies and the pace of demand recovery after the September-October peak season have locked tin prices in a volatile pattern.

Overall, low inventory and macro expectations provide a floor for tin prices, but the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar and the recovery in demand will determine the upside room.